Retirement Money Brief

The disappearing raise

Your 2027 Social Security raise, and the part that's quietly trimmed away.

By Ellen Marsh · August 11, 2026

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There is a raise coming for Social Security next year. The number that decides how big it is starts getting written this week, and for once you can watch it happen in real time.

The headline percentage, though, is never the whole story — a piece of any increase is usually spoken for before it reaches your bank account. Knowing that now is how you judge the fall's news calmly instead of reacting to it.

SOCIAL SECURITY

The 2027 Social Security raise is projected around 3.8%

Your 2027 cost-of-living adjustment begins taking shape on Wednesday, August 12, when the Labor Department releases July's inflation reading (Bureau of Labor Statistics). That report is the first of three — July, August, and September — that together set the raise. Social Security ties the adjustment to inflation over the third quarter and announces the official figure in October (Social Security's COLA page).

Here is the stake in plain numbers. This year's raise was 2.8%, which added about $56 a month to the average retirement benefit (Social Security's 2026 announcement); the agency's average retired-worker benefit runs near $2,071 a month (2026 fact sheet). For 2027, the Senior Citizens League currently projects 3.8%, which the group estimates would add roughly $74 a month to the benefit it tracks; AARP's estimate is closer to 3.6% (TSCL's COLA tracker).

My honest read: treat 3.8% as a well-informed guess, not a promise. It is an outside projection, and two of the three months that decide it have not been measured yet. The real number is the one Social Security publishes in October, and it could land a little above or below today's forecast.

It is also worth remembering what a bigger raise actually signals. If 2027's adjustment comes in above this year's 2.8%, it is because prices rose faster, not because anyone decided to be generous. A COLA is designed to help your check keep pace with inflation you have already been paying at the pharmacy and the grocery store — so a larger number is a mixed blessing, not a windfall. That framing keeps the fall's announcement in perspective whichever way it breaks.

The part that gets trimmed

A raise is not the same as a bigger check. For most people, the Medicare Part B premium is pulled straight out of the Social Security payment, and that premium usually rises too. When it does, it eats into the COLA before you ever see it. The 2027 Part B premium has not been announced, so anyone quoting you a firm "net raise" today is guessing.

That is why the headline percentage can overstate what actually lands in your account. A 3.8% adjustment on a $2,000 benefit is about $76 a month on paper — but if the Part B premium climbs, say, $10, the raise you feel is closer to $66.

None of this requires anything from you now. The COLA is automatic; you never apply for it and never pay to receive it. Keep that fact handy, because a public number like this one predictably invites a scam: if a call or text claims you must "confirm" or "activate" your 2027 benefit, or asks for your Social Security number to do it, hang up. There is nothing to confirm.

What is worth doing is small. Mark mid-October as the moment the real figure arrives, and when it does, read it against your own benefit rather than the average. If you want to see your exact numbers as they update, your personal account at ssa.gov/myaccount is the official place — not a link sent to you in a message.

SCAM WATCH

Medicare's fall sign-up season is scam season too

Medicare's Open Enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, and the plan notices that kick it off arrive in September (Medicare Open Enrollment). Every year that calendar brings a second, unwelcome wave: a surge of calls, texts, and now AI-voice messages from people pretending to be Medicare or a "licensed agent," timed to catch you while real plan mail is landing.

The consequence is concrete. Hand over your Medicare number and it can be used to bill fraudulent claims against your benefits or to steal your identity outright. The federal advice is blunt: guard that number like a credit card, and never trade it for money, gifts, or a "free" offer (Federal Trade Commission).

The one tell: an unexpected contact that pressures you to give your Medicare number, "verify" your account, or accept a benefit you did not request. Real Medicare does not cold-call to sell you a plan, and a legitimate agent cannot call you without your permission (FTC on Open Enrollment scams).

So the move is simple, and it is the same every time:

Hang up and go direct: If a "Medicare" call feels off, end it and call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227) yourself, using the number on your card — never a number the caller gives you.
Say nothing that identifies you: Do not confirm your Medicare number, Social Security number, or bank details to an inbound caller, even if they already recite part of them back to you.
Report it: File the attempt with Medicare or at ReportFraud.ftc.gov. Reports are what help investigators shut these operations down.

When the real September notice from your plan arrives, compare it against your own drugs and doctors and take your time. Nothing about a legitimate Medicare choice requires you to decide on a phone call you did not place.

MONEY YOU'RE OWED

A flat $50 from the Xfinity breach, with a September deadline

If you were an Xfinity customer, there is money on the table that takes about five minutes to claim. A $117.5 million settlement resolves claims over the October 2023 Comcast data breach, and the deadline to file is September 14, 2026 (official settlement site).

Eligible customers can claim a flat $50 with no proof required — no receipts, no documentation of harm. If the breach actually cost you money, you can instead file for documented identity-theft losses of up to $10,000, and everyone eligible can add three years of free credit monitoring. The exposed data reportedly included names, contact details, and in some cases Social Security numbers, which is exactly why that free monitoring is worth taking even if the cash payment is modest.

Two cautions worth repeating

First, the only official place to file is the settlement administrator's site, ComcastBreachSettlement.com. If a caller, text, or email demands a fee or your full Social Security number to "release" your payment, it is a scam — a real settlement claim never costs anything. Second, a no-proof cash payment can be reduced if a very large number of people file, so treat the $50 as an estimate rather than a guarantee.

If it may apply to you, file at the official site before September 14, choose electronic payment if you want it faster, and keep the confirmation. If you are unsure whether you were affected, the site has a look-up tool that checks your eligibility without any cost.

RETIREMENT ROUNDUP

Wait for October, not the first headline: The July inflation reading due August 12 is only the first of three months that decide the 2027 raise, and the official number comes from Social Security in October. Any message telling you to "lock in your new benefit amount" now is getting ahead of the facts — there is nothing to lock in.
A free freeze beats worrying: After any data breach, the strongest protection is a credit freeze, which blocks new accounts from being opened in your name. It is free at all three credit bureaus, you can lift it just as freely when you need credit, and it does not affect your credit score.

QUICK CHECK

If the 2027 raise comes in at 3.8%, does every retirement check go up by the same number of dollars?

ANSWER

No. The same percentage applies to everyone's benefit, but the dollar increase scales with the size of your check — a larger benefit rises more in dollars than a smaller one. And for many people the Medicare Part B premium deducted from the payment rises the same year, so the amount that actually lands can be smaller than the headline percentage suggests. Judge the raise by your own numbers, not the average.

Written by Ellen Marsh